Global cattle markets continue climbing despite trade uncertainty

WORLD – Cattle prices across major global markets are rising steadily in the first half of 2025, according to a report by RaboResearch.

The trend coincides with growing uncertainty in global beef trade following the inauguration of US President Donald Trump in January, which has introduced new levels of unpredictability.

Given the scale of US beef exports, any changes in American trade policy are likely to influence both domestic and international market behavior.

Although current trade flows remain largely unchanged, this could shift if economic tensions with trading partners like China and the European Union escalate into full-scale disputes.

In Europe, prices surged sharply in the first quarter due to tightening local supplies alongside consistently high consumer demand.

Angus Gidley-Baird, senior analyst for Animal Protein at RaboResearch, noted that European beef prices have now caught up with North America’s, where values are also climbing gradually.

He added that livestock health problems are further complicating production in both regions, with bluetongue spreading in Europe and the UK, and New World screwworm cases prompting the US to block cattle imports from Mexico.

These disease outbreaks are affecting already low herd numbers, adding pressure to prices that are already well above historical averages.

RaboResearch expects global beef output to shrink by 2% by the end of 2025, with Brazil forecast to experience a 5% drop and New Zealand a 4% decline.

Other countries, including the US, China, and parts of Europe, are also expected to see reduced output, while Australia stands out as one of the few nations likely to increase its beef production this year.

Tariff Policies and Shifting Trade Routes

The United States introduced new tariffs on beef imports on April 5 for several exporting nations.

Additional reciprocal tariffs remain under review and are postponed until early July, while rising tensions with China have pushed further tariff action to August.

As a result of these trade policy changes, some countries are beginning to shift their beef sourcing strategies.

Reports suggest that Chinese importers are increasing their reliance on suppliers from Australia, New Zealand, and South America as US beef becomes less cost-effective.

Despite the uncertainty, RaboResearch remains cautiously positive about continued demand and trade in the sector.

Gidley-Baird emphasized that beef has not been a specific target in tariff negotiations, and most major exporters are still facing standard import charges rather than penalties.

He warned, however, that further escalation between the US and its trade partners—particularly China and the EU—could change the current landscape significantly.

While tariffs have drawn much of the public’s attention, the real impact may lie in the long-term shifts in how and where beef is traded globally.

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