U.S. to move forward with tariff hike on Brazilian beef

USA – A proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian goods by U.S. President Donald Trump is set to severely disrupt the American beef supply chain, potentially driving up the cost of ground beef used in hamburgers.

Analysts and meat traders warn that the move comes at a time when U.S. meat processors are already grappling with tight supplies and reduced domestic production.

With the U.S. cattle herd now at its lowest level in over 70 years due to prolonged droughts and high feed costs, production is forecasted to drop by 2% to 26.4 billion pounds this year.

To compensate, food manufacturers have increasingly leaned on imports, particularly from Brazil, which supplied 175,063 metric tons of beef in the first five months of 2025, more than double the volume from the same period last year.

This accounted for 21% of all U.S. beef imports during that period, according to recent government figures.

The planned tariff, which would go into effect on August 1, would raise the overall import duty on Brazilian beef to approximately 76% through the end of the year.

Industry consultant Bob Chudy stated that at such levels, importing Brazilian beef would no longer be financially viable, effectively halting shipments.

The tariff adds pressure to a beef market already strained by the suspension of cattle imports from Mexico due to an outbreak of New World screwworm, a flesh-eating parasite.

Lean beef from Brazil is crucial for blending with fattier U.S. meat to produce hamburger patties, and companies may now be forced to seek costlier alternatives.

Analysts expect importers to shift focus to other suppliers such as Australia, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, though these sources also face high demand.

Higher costs are expected to filter down to consumers, with restaurants and food producers bracing for price hikes that could affect menu planning and profitability.

Sean Kennedy of the National Restaurant Association said the steep increase in tariffs may challenge restaurants’ ability to maintain supply and pricing.

Beyond beef, the proposed tariff could also raise the prices of common grocery items like coffee and orange juice, which are heavily imported from Brazil.

Consumer advocates, such as Thomas Gremillion from the Consumer Federation of America, say the move could be especially hard on low-income families, as it follows a congressional decision to cut food aid programs.

Though the White House argues that the tariff is intended to protect U.S. workers and farmers, importers say it is already disrupting trade activity, creating uncertainty across the market.

The latest tariff proposal comes just months after a 10% duty was implemented in April, which has already caused a slowdown in Brazilian beef imports by June.

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