EU pork output projected to fall 1% in 2026 as exports weaken
Pork exports and per capita consumption also expected to decline in 2026
EUROPE – The European Commission expects pork production across the EU-27 to edge down by 1.0% in 2026, with total output projected at about 21.76 million metric tons as a smaller breeding herd in several member states reduces the number of pigs available for slaughter.
According to the Commission’s latest market outlook, the decline follows livestock census data showing a drop in sow numbers in many EU countries, which is expected to limit supply during the year while keeping the bloc’s self-sufficiency ratio largely unchanged at roughly 115%.
The forecast indicates that the European Union will continue exporting more pork than it imports, although officials said a substantial share of shipments consists of secondary cuts and by-products that face weaker demand within the domestic market.
Export pressure linked to ASF outbreak
At the same time, the Commission predicts EU pork exports will fall by 3.0% in 2026 because of trade disruptions linked to African swine fever outbreaks reported in Spain in late November 2025, which prompted several importing countries outside the bloc to suspend purchases of Spanish pork products.
Although regionalization arrangements later allowed Spain to resume limited access to some overseas markets, the Commission said trade patterns have already shifted as larger volumes of Spanish pork remained within the EU market and increased supply pressure across the region.
As a result, pork prices in the EU are currently trading well below levels recorded in 2025 due to the additional product circulating within member states following the export restrictions imposed after the ASF cases.
Consumption expected to decline again
Meanwhile, EU pork consumption is also expected to weaken in 2026 after two years of relative stability and a temporary rebound in 2025 when per capita intake rose by 3.4%.
The Commission estimates that pork consumption per person across the EU will decrease by 0.9% next year to 32.6 kilograms, returning the market to its longer-term downward trajectory.
Based on the latest outlook, average pork consumption in the EU would stand about 2.0 kilograms lower than levels recorded two decades ago, representing a decline of approximately 5.7% over the 20-year period.
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