Global coffee output to hit record 10.7M tonnes in 2025/26 – USDA 

GLOBAL – Global coffee production is forecast to reach a historic high of 10.7 million tonnes (178.7 million bags) in the 2025/26 crop year, according to the latest outlook by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).  

The increase of 4.3 million bags from the previous season is driven largely by a surge in robusta coffee production in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Ethiopia. 

Robusta output is expected to rise by 7.9% to 4.9 million tonnes, offsetting a 1.7% decline in arabica production, which is projected at 5.8 million tonnes. This shift marks a notable trend in global production, with countries focusing more on robusta due to climate adaptability and higher yields. 

Global coffee exports are projected to increase by 42,000 tonnes to 7.3 million tonnes. Growth in shipments from Vietnam, Indonesia, and Ethiopia is expected to outweigh export declines from Brazil and Colombia.  

The European Union remains the top importer at 2.7 million tonnes, followed by the United States (1.4 million tonnes), Japan (372,000 tonnes), Russia (228,000 tonnes), and Switzerland (210,000 tonnes). 

With global consumption forecast at a record 169.4 million bags and exports expected to hit 122.3 million bags, the coffee market is experiencing sustained demand amid tight inventories and ongoing price pressures. 

Country-specific highlights 

Uganda is projected to produce 6.875 million bags, including 5.815 million bags of robusta and 1.06 million arabica. This cements Uganda’s position as the fourth-largest global producer of robusta.  

Coffee contributes nearly 20% of Uganda’s foreign exchange, earning US$1.1 billion in 2024. The industry supports 1.8 million smallholder farmers, many of whom intercrop coffee with food crops to enhance income and soil health. 

Ethiopia, the origin of arabica coffee, is forecast to produce 11.6 million bags, a record high. This increase follows national efforts to replant old trees, improve training, and adopt better pruning practices.  

Ethiopia is expected to export 7.8 million bags in 2025/26, reflecting stronger global demand and enhanced logistics. 

Vietnam is set to produce 31 million bags, up by 2 million bags, with robusta dominating. The rise follows favorable weather and increased investment in agricultural inputs. Bean exports are projected to reach 24.6 million bags. 

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, will produce 65 million bags, a slight increase from the previous year.  

Robusta production is expected to rise to 24.1 million bags, but arabica output is forecast to decline to 40.9 million bags due to adverse weather in key growing regions. Exports are expected to fall to 41.75 million bags amid elevated market prices. 

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