Rabobank forecasts global sow herd decline in 2026
China’s herd reduction and shifting trade patterns expected to shape global pork market
WORLD – The global sow herd is expected to contract slightly in 2026, according to Rabobank’s latest quarterly pork report, which projects a cautious outlook for the industry amid continued uncertainty.
Rabobank said the decline will mainly result from China’s decision to cut its sow herd by about one million animals as part of efforts to stabilise prices after months of oversupply.
Pork prices in China have dropped sharply, currently standing about 42% lower than the same time last year, the bank noted, adding that the planned reductions should help balance the market and support gradual price recovery.
The report also highlights that while the contraction in China’s herd is the main driver, the overall slowdown reflects a wider global hesitation among producers in response to volatile market conditions and disease risks.
Trade Dynamics Remain Unstable
Rabobank observed that international pork trade will likely remain unsettled through 2026, influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and market realignments.
The bank expects global pork trade volumes at the end of 2025 to be roughly similar to 2024 levels or slightly higher, with Brazil emerging as a key beneficiary.
Brazil’s share of global exports has grown from 12% to 15% this year, supported by strong demand from Asia and the Middle East, according to the report.
In September 2025, Brazil recorded its highest pork export volumes on record, reflecting how global trade flows continue to adapt to shifting supply dynamics.
Health Concerns Continue to Challenge Producers
Rabobank also addressed herd health as an ongoing challenge for major producers, pointing to persistent risks from diseases such as Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome virus (PRRSv), Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea virus (PEDv), and African Swine Fever virus (ASFv).
While the bank expects overall herd health to improve slightly next year, it cautioned that outbreaks remain a significant threat to stability in several regions.
Vietnam, for instance, has seen sharp price drops due to a resurgence of ASF, which triggered widespread panic selling and market disruptions.
In contrast, the Philippines has faced rising pig prices as ASF-driven supply shortages tightened the domestic market.
By the end of the second quarter of 2025, the country’s pig inventory stood at about 9.01 million head, representing a 5% year-on-year decline.
Rabobank concluded that as producers navigate tightening margins, disease risks, and unstable trade flows, global pork market adjustments are likely to continue well into 2026.
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