Treasury Wine Estates withdraws 2026 earnings guidance
The Australian wine group cited weaker Penfolds sales in China and US distribution changes for scrapping its fiscal 2026 profit outlook.
AUSTRALIA – Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) has withdrawn its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance, citing uncertainty surrounding the performance of its Penfolds and Treasury Americas divisions.
The Australian winemaker said it was no longer appropriate to maintain its forecast for earnings before interest, tax, and SG&A (EBITS) growth at a group level.
“As a result of the uncertain outlook in relation to Penfolds and Treasury Americas, TWE has formed the view that it is no longer appropriate to retain its guidance for EBITS growth at a group level in fiscal 2026,” the company said in a trade update.
The Lindemans brand owner stated that first-quarter shipments for the 2026 fiscal year were in line with group expectations in key markets but noted soft Penfolds sales in China. It warned that if the current trends persist, Penfolds depletion targets in China would likely not be met for the year.
“Given the uncertainty that remains as to the outlook, TWE is not in a position to provide revised guidance at this point in time,” the company added.
TWE had previously projected low to mid double-digit EBITS growth for Penfolds in fiscal 2026 and 15% growth in fiscal 2027 but has now scrapped both forecasts. The company re-entered the Chinese market last year following Beijing’s removal of tariffs on Australian wine, initially imposed in 2020.
In the United States, TWE’s Treasury Americas business reported lower first-quarter shipments due to US distributor RNDC’s exit from California, which took effect in September. Breakthru Beverage Group was appointed as the new distributor in July.
In its fiscal 2025 results, released in August, TWE said “modest” EBITS growth in 2026 for Treasury Americas would depend on offsetting lower shipments in California through negotiations with RNDC.
At the time, it estimated a potential A$50 million reduction in net sales revenue from the distributor transition.
TWE said discussions with RNDC were ongoing, with both parties seeking a “practical solution.” It cautioned that depending on the outcome, there may be additional impacts on fiscal 2026 shipments and operating plans.
The Melbourne-based company also announced it has paused its on-market share buy-back program until “there is greater clarity around trading conditions and expectations.”
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