Ukraine poultry output set for gradual recovery in 2026 as export signals improve

UKRAINE – Ukraine’s chicken meat production is projected to recover in 2026 as the sector moves past a difficult 2025 shaped by conflict-related disruptions, according to a recent market assessment by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to strain production systems in 2025 through repeated electricity interruptions, constrained labour supply, higher input costs and weaker domestic consumption.

Production trend through 2025

Output improved in early 2025 before weakening in the second half of the year, with slaughter data and flock estimates indicating stabilisation by year-end even though full official annual figures remain unavailable.

Major producer MHP SE reported reduced output in its third-quarter 2025 performance while still sustaining export shipments through stock utilisation, while smaller operators faced uneven operational and transport difficulties.

The industry’s vertical integration helped cushion losses, as leading firms balanced poultry operations with revenues from crop production and related commodity businesses, though several producers still scaled back volumes and sought financial support.

Debt restructuring by large companies, including MHP SE and Dniprovsky, provided additional operational flexibility heading into 2026, with overall output expected to return close to 2024 levels but without strong expansion beyond that range.

Production outlook for 2026

Production expenses increased steadily through 2025 and into early 2026 as reliance on diesel-powered backup generators rose during prolonged outages, even as higher soybean output reduced feed costs while other inputs remained expensive.

These higher costs were passed on to retail markets, raising chicken prices.

However, poultry remained the most affordable animal protein in Ukraine, accounting for about 50% of total animal protein consumption.

The 2026 outlook remains exposed to ongoing risks, including electricity instability, labour shortages linked to conscription and migration, weaker demand due to population decline, logistics and cold chain disruptions, severe winter conditions and repeated air alerts affecting production schedules.

Operational risks and disease monitoring

Many producers invested in additional energy infrastructure after slowing output in late 2025, while animal health concerns remained in focus even though no highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks were reported in commercial flocks, apart from a single non-commercial case in northern Ukraine.

Export conditions also showed gradual improvement as discussions around a UK trade arrangement and European Union quota adjustments signalled more predictable access to external markets, offering partial support to producers navigating a still unstable domestic environment in 2026.

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