US red meat production forecast falls as poultry output rises – USDA
USDA has lowered its 2026 beef and pork production outlook while raising broiler, turkey and egg forecasts, reflecting changing supply conditions across the US animal protein industry.
USA – The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its 2026 livestock and poultry production forecasts, lowering expectations for beef and pork while raising projections for broiler meat, turkey and eggs.
The latest estimates reflect changes in slaughter rates, carcass and dressed weights, hatchery data and the number of laying hens, providing an updated picture of supply and pricing trends across the US animal protein industry.
Beef production is projected at 24.802 billion pounds, down 75 million pounds from September’s forecast, as lighter carcass weights and declining steer and heifer slaughter weigh on output.
The average steer price is forecast at US$237.56 per hundredweight, up US$0.21. Beef imports remain higher, exports are unchanged and domestic consumption is expected to edge lower.
Pork production is forecast at 27.621 billion pounds, a reduction of 150 million pounds from the previous estimate, reflecting lighter dressed weights and slower slaughter.
The average barrow and gilt price is projected at US$63.79 per hundredweight, down US$1.03.
Imports have been revised upward, while exports and domestic consumption are expected to decline.
Poultry production gains ground
In contrast, broiler production is forecast at 49.72 billion pounds, up 100 million pounds from September, supported by slaughter, hatchery and bird-weight data.
The average broiler price is projected at US$1.189 per pound, an increase of 0.1 cent, with only minor adjustments to supply and demand estimates.
Turkey production is expected to reach 5.134 billion pounds, an increase of 35 million pounds, reflecting updated slaughter, hatchery and weight data.
The average turkey price is projected at US$1.755 per pound, up 0.9 cent, while export expectations have increased significantly.
Egg production is forecast at 9.16 billion dozen, up 20 million dozen from the previous estimate, supported by a larger laying-hen population.
The average egg price is projected at US$1.035 per dozen, down US$0.031. Imports remain steady, exports are lower and domestic consumption is expected to increase.
Supply dynamics shape industry outlook
The revisions come amid continuing changes in US livestock supply and feed-market conditions.
In September, the USDA’s Economic Research Service also highlighted historically low cattle slaughter as a factor constraining beef production, alongside expectations for higher beef imports.
The outlooks have also pointed to continued growth in broiler production and changes in egg supply as the poultry sector responds to flock numbers and market demand.
For meat processors, feed manufacturers and protein suppliers, the changing forecasts underline the importance of monitoring livestock availability, production costs and trade flows when planning capacity and procurement.
The USDA’s next supply, demand and production estimates are scheduled for release on November 10, 2026.
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