African air cargo growth slows to 1.1% in July as Africa-Asia trade weakens
The figures highlight how exposed African air cargo is to shifts along major global trade corridors
AFRICA – African air cargo growth has slowed sharply in July 2026 to just 1.1% year over year, after several months of strong gains, as weaker flows on the critical Africa-Asia corridor highlight the continent’s heavy reliance on international markets and the limited development of intra-African trade.
According to the latest data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), air cargo demand among African airlines rose by just 1.1% year on year in July, while capacity increased by 3.9%.
That was the weakest regional growth recorded over the period and a sharp slowdown from previous months. Demand rose 13.3% year on year in May, before easing to 4.7% in June. July’s figure marked a significant loss of momentum after a broadly favourable first half of the year for African air cargo.
The slowdown partly reflects weaker flows on the Africa-Asia route, a key driver of international air cargo for African carriers. After 11 consecutive months of growth, including several periods of double-digit gains, cargo volumes on the route rose by just 0.9% in June.
Exposure to Global Trade Corridors
The figures highlight how exposed African air cargo is to shifts along major global trade corridors.
That exposure comes amid continued uncertainty in global trade, with IATA urging industry participants to remain cautious about risks from renewed hostilities in the Middle East and uncertainty over U.S. tariffs.
Africa’s trade concentration with China further amplifies this vulnerability. In 2025, China exported goods worth US$225 billion to Africa, while its imports from the continent totalled US$123 billion.
For African carriers, that concentration represents both a market opportunity and exposure to shifts in Asian demand and international trade tensions.
Intra-African Market Remains Underdeveloped
According to Afreximbank’s African Trade and Economic Outlook 2026, intra-African trade is expected to rise by 10% this year to about US$230 billion. That figure remains modest compared with the roughly US$1.4 trillion in total African trade recorded in 2025.
Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area could eventually change that dynamic by encouraging trade among the continent’s economies.
For air cargo, the opportunity would be to attract more high-value, time-sensitive goods, for which air transport is particularly well suited.
Ultimately, overcoming these structural imbalances will be necessary to ensure long-term sustainability for airlines operating across the continent.
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