India’s sugar output projected at 34.9 M tonnes for 2025-26 Season – ISMA 

INDIA – India’s sugar production is projected to reach 34.90 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season starting October, according to the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA).  

The industry body reaffirmed its July estimate of 349 lakh tonnes of gross sugar production, signaling stability in output expectations despite regional variations. 

ISMA said improved cane quality in major producing states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu is underpinning a marginal rise in production.  

However, localized declines in flood-affected regions are expected to partially offset these gains, leaving the national output broadly stable. 

The association noted that it will reassess crop conditions in October 2025 and release its first advance estimate between October and November.  

ISMA had earlier issued its preliminary forecast on July 31, 2025, based on pan-India satellite imagery captured in the third week of June and supported by field reports, under the assumption of normal monsoon conditions. 

A follow-up satellite survey in September covering Maharashtra and Karnataka was conducted to reassess crop conditions. This updated review incorporated prevailing ground realities, monsoon progress, water availability, and other related factors across all sugar-producing states. 

Favorable monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka, aided by abundant August rainfall in key regions, have ensured healthy crop growth and normal development.  

With the remainder of the southwest monsoon and the upcoming northeast monsoon projected to be positive, coupled with higher reservoir levels than last year, the outlook for a strong crop has further improved. 

In Uttar Pradesh, crop conditions are markedly better than last year due to mill-level cane development initiatives and timely varietal improvements. Low disease incidence is expected to translate into improved yields and higher recovery rates.  

Tamil Nadu is also showing a promising outlook, with both yield and recovery now projected to exceed earlier expectations. 

Meanwhile, minor reductions in cane output are anticipated in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttarakhand due to localized flood-like conditions. ISMA noted that the outlook for other states remains consistent with earlier projections. 

For the ongoing 2024-25 season (October–September), sugar production is estimated at 26.10 million tonnes. The government has also approved the export of one million tonnes of sugar during the current period. 

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