Nigerian tomato prices expected to fall from October as harvest season begins
Once the upcoming yields from various regions reach the market, the increased inventory is expected to stabilize the industry.
NIGERIA – Tomato growers in Nigeria expect prices to decline starting in October 2026 as new harvests from multiple regions enter the market, easing current supply shortages that have driven costs upward for consumers and manufacturers.
The forecast was issued by the Tomatoes and Orchard Producers Association of Nigeria (TOOPAN), which said that current supplies remain below demand from both the fresh market and the processing industry.
Nigeria is the second-largest tomato producer in Africa after Egypt, with annual production estimated at 1.8-2.3 million metric tons. Production can reach close to 3.6 million tonnes in years with favourable harvest conditions.
“We will be looking at October 2026; prices will crash by that time,” said TOOPAN president Oyeleke Bola. “October is going to be the next harvesting month, and at that time there will be huge harvests because a lot of our farmers will be harvesting their tomatoes to complement others so that we can have enough in the market, and when we have enough in the market, the price will surely come down.”
By October, harvesting will take place across northern regions, including Jos, Kaduna, Kano, and Gombe, as well as in south-western states such as Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, and parts of Lagos, including Badagry and Epe.
According to Bola, current yields range from 20 to 35 tons per hectare, depending on the production region. Current price increases are attributed to higher production costs, including fertilizer imports, rising seed costs, insecurity in producing regions, and limited access to finance.
Bola also said these factors are affecting the number of growers planting tomatoes and overall productivity. Once the upcoming yields from various regions reach the market, the increased inventory is expected to stabilize the industry.
Furthermore, TOOPAN said it is working with seed companies and fertilizer producers to improve access to inputs and is providing agronomic training for growers.
This collaboration aims to equip farmers with better resources and technical training to improve future productivity. Consistent production remains the primary goal to ensure food security and affordability across the country.
The association’s initiatives represent a strategic effort to address structural challenges in Nigeria’s tomato value chain, with long-term stability depending on sustained investment and improved access to quality inputs.
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