U.S. imposes higher tariffs on Brazilian beef, shifting global supply chains

USA – The United States is introducing an additional 50% tariff on Brazilian beef imports, which, when added to the current 26.4% duty on shipments above the annual quota, brings the effective rate to 76.4%.

Brazil is allowed to export 65,005 metric tons of fresh beef to the U.S. annually without duty, a limit that was reached by January 17 this year.

Despite the existing 26.4% tariff, Brazil continued to export large volumes due to strong U.S. demand and relatively low domestic production costs.

However, with the new tariff in place, industry analysts expect a significant drop in Brazilian exports to the U.S. as the economics become less favorable.

This shift is already prompting American buyers to consider other Mercosur suppliers, including Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay, to meet their beef requirements.

In the first six months of 2025, Brazil shipped over 165,000 tons of beef to the U.S., but a large portion of that may now be diverted to China, its second-largest customer.

Such a move could have ripple effects across the region, as Chinese buyers may begin sourcing less from Argentina and Uruguay.

Argentina, which saw a 15% decline in exports in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, could feel further pressure as Brazil redirects its supply to Asia.

Meanwhile, Brazil increased its beef exports by 13%, Uruguay saw a 4% rise, and Paraguay recorded a 12% boost over the same period, according to data from the Rosario Board of Trade.

Paraguay is now planning to double its shipments to the U.S. starting in September, aiming for up to 8,800 tons per month.

Despite the higher tariffs, Paraguay believes it can gain ground in the U.S. market due to the similarity of its beef to Brazilian products.

Uruguay is also benefitting from high U.S. demand and strong domestic prices, which are currently driving significant trade interest.

Previously, half of Uruguay’s exports went to China and just over a fifth to the U.S., but recent trends indicate a shift toward North America and Europe, with average export prices ranging from US$7,000 to US$8,000 per ton.

Brazil remains the top global beef exporter, accounting for roughly 23% of total world exports, followed by Argentina at 8.4%, while Uruguay and Paraguay continue to expand their market share.

Collectively, Mercosur nations contribute between 30% and 35% of the global beef supply, making them key players in the international market.

Analysts expect continued market instability in the second half of the year as global buyers and sellers respond to shifting trade policies in the U.S. and China.

According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, prices are likely to remain high in the near term due to tight supply and the ongoing rebuilding of cattle herds across major producing countries.

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