Tomato prices in Kenya rise 45.7% as heavy rainfall disrupts vegetable supply chains
These increases in transport costs make moving vegetables from farms to markets more expensive, with the costs passed directly to consumers.
KENYA – Tomato prices have risen by 11.2% between April and May 2026 and by 45.7% year on year, driven by heavy rainfall and flooding that damaged farms, destroyed seedlings, and reduced harvest volumes across key production regions.
Extreme weather events triggered Kenya’s spike in food inflation through multiple channels. To begin with, flooding destroyed seedlings and damaged crops at the flowering and fruiting stages, directly reducing harvest volumes.
Secondly, submerged rural roads slowed the movement of produce from farms to urban centres, causing further spoilage of perishable tomatoes. Growers had already reduced tomato production after earlier market losses and price volatility, leaving supply low even before the rains began.
As a result, tomato crate prices in Kirinyaga rose from around KSh 300 (US$2.32) earlier in the year to between KSh 5,000 and KSh 10,000 (US$38.60 to US$77.20), with some retail outlets selling single tomatoes for KSh 25 (US$0.19).
The relationship between rising fuel costs and vegetable prices is direct and compounding. Transport costs recorded the highest annual increase at 16.5%, driven by higher fuel prices and logistics disruptions. These increases in transport costs make moving vegetables from farms to markets more expensive, with the costs passed directly to consumers.
Furthermore, flooding on rural roads forced produce to take longer alternative routes, increasing fuel consumption and spoilage rates. Kenya’s annual inflation rate rose to 6.7% in May 2026 from 5.6% in April, driven mainly by food and transport costs.
The 45.7% annual increase in tomato prices is not merely a weather story but a supply chain story. Growers had reduced planting after prior losses, roads could not withstand heavy rains, and fuel prices were already elevated. Each factor alone would have put pressure on market prices, and together they created a crisis.
Investors in cold storage and all-weather rural roads should note that even when farms have harvestable produce, getting it to market requires passable roads and affordable fuel.
Ultimately, those who build these solutions will find willing customers among governments, retailers, and consumers tired of paying KSh 25 for a single tomato.
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