Peru cuts blueberry export forecast to 366,000 tons amid El Niño
Rather than last year’s pronounced seasonal peak, Proarándanos now expects a flatter plateau, with shipments averaging around 13,500 metric tons per week.
PERU – Industry association Proarándanos has revised Peru’s 2026/27 blueberry export forecast to 366,000 metric tons, down 4.2% from September’s estimate and 4.4% below the 383,000 tons shipped in 2025/26.
The revision carries added weight because Peru has approximately 15% more hectares under production than last season, yet total exports are now expected to finish below last year’s levels.
Proarándanos attributes the downward revision to El Niño conditions having a more severe impact than initially anticipated, resulting in accelerated crop development, slightly smaller average berry sizes and lower productivity in certain varieties.
For buyers and importers, the timing of the shortfall is more important than the annual total. Peruvian blueberry exports began the season ahead of last year’s pace, reaching approximately 136,000 metric tons by week 38, up 18.7% year on year.
However, shipments in week 39 totalled just 12,387 metric tons, down 39% on the same week last season, according to Proarándanos. From week 39 onwards, the association expects approximately 229,000 metric tons, 14.2% below the same period last year.
The difference is most pronounced over the next eight weeks, when exports are projected at about 108,000 metric tons, compared with 156,000 metric tons last season, representing a 31.2% reduction.
Additionally, rather than last year’s pronounced seasonal peak, Proarándanos now expects a flatter plateau, with shipments averaging around 13,500 metric tons per week.
Meanwhile, Luciano Fiszman of Gourmet Trading Company previously warned against interpreting strong early shipments as indicative of the season’s overall performance.
“We shouldn’t extrapolate the current year-over-year increase and assume that Peru will finish the season proportionally higher than last year,” Fiszman said.
Export markets show contrasting developments. By week 39, exports to the United States reached 70,342 metric tons, up 26% year on year and accounting for approximately 47% of Peru’s total exports.
For instance, Europe received 38,217 metric tons, up 2%, while shipments to the United Kingdom rose 8% to 8,910 metric tons. China received 17,783 metric tons, down 24%.
Through week 39, Peru exported 8,839 metric tons of organic blueberries, 30% lower than the same period last year, while conventional exports reached 140,016 metric tons, up 14%.
Lastly, Proarándanos has reduced its full-season organic forecast to approximately 24,900 metric tons, with the expected peak now projected for week 47 at around 1,100 metric tons, well below last season’s peak of approximately 1,900 metric tons in week 40.
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