Brazil coffee harvest set to hit record 67.6M bags in 2026
Higher productivity, expanded production area and favourable weather are driving Brazil’s projected record coffee crop, while robusta output is expected to decline.
BRAZIL – Brazil is set to produce a record 67.6 million 60-kilogram bags of processed coffee in 2026, according to the latest estimate from the National Supply Company (Conab).
The projection represents a 19.6% increase from the 2025 crop and the highest production level in the agency’s historical series.
Conab’s third 2026 coffee crop survey, released on September 24, showed that 99% of Brazil’s coffee-growing area had been harvested. The increase is being supported by both a larger production area and higher average productivity.
The area under coffee production is estimated at 1.95 million hectares, up 5.1% from 2025. Meanwhile, average productivity is forecast to rise 13.8%, from 30.4 bags per hectare last year to 34.6 bags per hectare in 2026.
Arabica coffee, which represents about 70% of Brazil’s total production, is expected to reach 48.2 million bags, an increase of 34.8% from 2025.
Conab attributed the stronger performance to the crop’s positive biennial cycle, improved weather conditions and increased use of technology and inputs by coffee growers.
A recent industry report quoted Conab as saying: “The result is related, in addition to the positive biennial cycle, to the entry of new areas into production, the growing use of technologies and inputs, and the combination of more favourable weather conditions.”
Robusta production is expected to move in the opposite direction, declining 6.6% to 19.4 million bags. Although the production area is forecast to increase 4% to 386,600 hectares, lower productivity, particularly in Espírito Santo, is expected to weigh on output.
Coffee Exports Rise in August
Brazilian coffee exports also reached a monthly record in August, with 3.8 million 60-kilogram bags shipped, up 25.8% from July and 43.2% from August 2025. However, exports for January through August totalled 24.6 million bags, down 6.6% year on year.
The larger Brazilian crop comes as global coffee production is also expected to reach a record 189.7 million bags in 2026/27, according to USDA estimates cited by Conab. Global consumption is projected at 179.7 million bags.
Coffee prices have faced pressure as expectations of increased supply rise, with Brazil’s larger harvest adding to availability alongside anticipated production from other major origins.
