Brazil forecasts 4.3% surge in coffee harvest in 2025 despite lower-yield cycle
Robusta output surges 42% to record 20.8M bags while Arabica falls 10% on drought and biennial cycle.
BRAZIL – Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is projecting a harvest of 56.5 million 60-kilogram bags in 2025, marking a 4.3% increase from the previous year, according to new estimates from the National Supply Company.
Although 2025 falls within a “negative biennium,” a period traditionally associated with lower yields, the anticipated crop would rank as the nation’s third-largest on record, behind only the 2018 and 2020 harvests.
The improved outlook is attributed to stronger average productivity, which compensates for a slight contraction in cultivated area. Total planted area declined by 1.2% to approximately 4.5 million acres.
Most of the production growth is expected to come from Robusta coffee, with output projected to rise more than 42% year-over-year to reach a record 20.8 million bags. Favorable weather conditions and enhanced yields have fueled this expansion.
Brazil, known globally as the leading producer of Arabica coffee, has gradually increased the share of Robusta plantings due to the variety’s resilience to more frequent droughts and rising temperatures. These climatic challenges have prompted a shift in cultivation strategies in several traditional growing regions.
Arabica production, however, is expected to decline nearly 10% to an estimated 35.7 million bags. The decrease is linked to the crop’s natural low-yield cycle, reduced planted area, and insufficient rainfall during critical developmental phases.
Major producing states, including Minas Gerais and São Paulo, have reported notable drops, while regions such as the Cerrado and parts of Bahia recorded localized gains.
In the international market, Brazil exported 17% less coffee from January to October compared with the same period a year earlier. Despite the lower volumes, export revenue reached US$12.9 billion in the first ten months, surpassing the full-year value of 2024 due to elevated global prices.
According to analysis from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, global coffee prices are unlikely to experience a substantial decline soon.
World inventories are estimated at their lowest level in 25 years, at 21.8 million 60-kg bags, maintaining pressure on supply and supporting price stability across international markets.
Sign up HERE to receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.
