Global blueberry output outpaces demand, prices may fall in 2027
Although demand currently favours larger berries, Pajuelo expects other quality characteristics to become more important over time.
SPAIN – Global blueberry cultivation has continued to expand faster than consumption, potentially pressuring prices in the coming years, according to Francisco Manuel Pajuelo, Marketing Director at Surexport.
Speaking to Blueberries Consulting at Fruit Attraction 2026 in Madrid, Pajuelo said consumption continues to rise, but not as quickly as production.
Looking ahead to 2027, he expects further globalization of the blueberry market, with prices potentially declining as supply increases.
“The factor that is making the difference is genetics,” Pajuelo said, adding that breeding programmes must increasingly consider consumer preferences alongside agronomic performance.
In addition, flavour, texture, berry size and shelf life are among the selection criteria. Although demand currently favours larger berries, Pajuelo expects other quality characteristics to become more important over time.
For investors, this suggests that blueberry production is entering a phase in which volume alone no longer guarantees returns. When supply growth outpaces demand, price competition intensifies and margins compress for growers selling undifferentiated fruit.
Moreover, genetics become the primary lever for differentiation, allowing producers to command premiums for varieties with superior flavour, firmness or shelf life rather than competing on size and availability.
The second lever is supply calendar management. For instance, Surexport combines growing operations in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Peru to maintain year-round supply, coordinating harvest windows across origins to ensure consistent fruit quality.
As a result, for a retailer, guaranteeing a continuous supply of a consistent product reduces sourcing complexity and strengthens negotiating power. Meanwhile, for a grower, participation in a multi-origin network spreads production risk across geographies and climates.
Pajuelo also identified retail prices as a barrier to wider blueberry consumption, though increased availability could gradually improve access. This creates a tension for the sector: falling prices may pressure producer margins in the short term, but they also expand the consumer base, which could absorb rising volumes over time.
The strategic question for operators is whether to compete on cost, which favours large-scale producers in low-cost regions, or on quality and reliability, which favours companies with strong genetics and diversified supply networks.
Surexport’s approach, which combines multiple origins and focuses on varietal development, suggests the company is positioning itself for the latter.
Ultimately, success will depend on whether consumers are willing to pay a premium for a better eating experience or on blueberries becoming a commodity in which price drives purchase decisions.
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