Growers facing lower yields and import-driven price pressure must also contend with retailers’ caution stemming from supply uncertainty.

SPAIN – Spain’s Agriculture Ministry has forecast nearly 5.75 million tonnes of citrus production for the 2026/27 season, up 1.1% from the previous season, though projected output remains nearly 20% below the level recorded a decade ago, according to the ministry.
Valencian oranges typically appear in supermarkets in early autumn, with the main season starting after the October holiday period and continuing through May.
Prices are expected to remain relatively stable, with Navelina oranges currently averaging €0.27 (US$0.29) per kilogram, three cents below last season’s level at this point.
South Africa is the European Union’s largest non-EU supplier of citrus fruit, with Egypt coming second.
During the 2024/25 season, South Africa supplied more than 600,000 tonnes of oranges, mandarins and clementines, while Egypt supplied approximately 370,000 tonnes, according to EU trade data.
Combined, imports from the two countries totalled one million tonnes. In October 2024 alone, approximately 96,000 tonnes of South African oranges entered the EU.
For Spanish growers, the timing of these imports is the central complaint. Valencian agricultural organizations argue that South African and Egyptian fruit competes directly with local produce during the domestic harvest season rather than filling supply gaps outside it.
The Valencian Farmers Association (AVA-ASAJA) reports that uncertainty over the remaining South African supplies is making retailers more cautious about buying fruit.
As a result, the association is urging the EU to review its trade agreements with South Africa and Egypt, arguing that imports are replacing European production rather than complementing it.
The second concern is regulatory. A study by La Unió Llauradora examined 12 batches of South African citrus sold in Valencian supermarkets and reported that 10 batches, about 83%, contained at least one pesticide identified as prohibited in Europe.
The substances named include methoxyfenozide, spirotetramat and 2-phenylphenol, also known as orthophenylphenol.
For investors, the combination of declining domestic production, rising import volumes and unresolved phytosanitary issues creates uncertainty across the Spanish citrus value chain.
Furthermore, growers facing lower yields and import-driven price pressure must also contend with retailers’ caution stemming from supply uncertainty.
Finally, the sector’s long-term decline is structural rather than seasonal, and the policy question of whether EU trade agreements adequately protect domestic producers remains open.
Sign up HERE to receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.