USDA lowers US pork production forecasts as Germany records slight decline in output
Germany reports lower slaughter numbers and pork production during the first five months of 2026.
PORK – The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has slightly reduced its pork production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, while increasing its overall outlook for total red meat and poultry production as stronger broiler output is expected to offset lower red meat supplies.
In its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA projected total US red meat and poultry production for 2026 at 108.555 billion pounds, a marginal upward revision from its previous forecast.
The department lowered its 2026 pork production estimate to 27.955 billion pounds after a smaller-than-expected slaughter in the second quarter, although heavier dressed weights are expected to partly offset the reduced number of animals processed.
Looking ahead to 2027, the USDA forecasts total US red meat and poultry production at 109 billion pounds, while trimming expected pork production to 28.135 billion pounds following a smaller projected pig crop reported in the June Quarterly Hogs and Pigs survey.
The agency said lower slaughter volumes next year are also expected to be partly offset by heavier dressed weights, limiting the overall decline in pork production.
Meanwhile, the average US barrow and gilt price declined by 2.7% to US$64.82 per hundredweight, down US$1.81 from the previous month’s estimate, while the department maintained its 2027 price forecast at US$65 per hundredweight.
Germany reports lower slaughter volumes
At the same time, Germany recorded a modest decline in pork production during the first five months of 2026 as slaughter volumes eased compared with the corresponding period last year.
Data released by the Federal Statistical Office showed that commercial slaughterhouses processed around 18.48 million pigs between January and May, a decrease of 0.9% or approximately 164,000 animals from the 18.65 million slaughtered during the same period in 2025.
The decline was mainly linked to a slight reduction in pigs supplied from German farms, with domestically produced animals accounting for 18.18 million of the total, down 0.5% from a year earlier.
During May alone, slaughterhouses processed approximately 3.38 million German pigs, compared with 3.52 million in May 2025, while imported pigs slaughtered during the January to May period fell to 289,638 from about 357,000 over the same period last year.
The lower number of animals processed also reduced pork output, with Germany producing around 1.80 million metric tons of pork during the first five months of 2026, representing a decline of just under 1.0% or approximately 17,800 metric tons compared with the corresponding period in 2025.
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