Boeing forecasts global freighter fleet to expand two-thirds by 2045 amid e-commerce growth
For large widebody freighters, including the 777F and the new 777-8F, Boeing expects the fleet to grow from 685 aircraft in 2025 to 1,280 by 2045.
GLOBAL – Boeing has forecast the global freighter fleet to expand from 2,395 aircraft in 2025 to 4,010 by 2045, representing an increase of approximately two-thirds, as the aircraft manufacturer projects rising demand from e-commerce and supply chain reliability to drive long-term air cargo growth.
According to a recent market outlook by Boeing, over the next 20 years, the aircraft manufacturer forecasts 2,930 freighter deliveries worldwide, including both new-build and converted aircraft.
During the same period, 1,315 freighters are expected to be retired. Through 2045, air cargo traffic is forecast to grow by about 3.7% per year, outpacing trade and economic growth.
“Demand is supported by the need to move high-value, perishable and time-sensitive goods, as well as supply chain reliability and cross-border e-commerce,” said Boeing.
Fleet Composition and Segment Growth
The company projects the standard-body freighter fleet to grow from 875 aircraft in 2025 to 1,460 by 2045. This segment includes Boeing’s 737-800 Boeing Converted Freighter. The medium widebody freighter fleet is forecast to increase from 835 aircraft last year to 1,270 by 2045. This category includes the 767-300F and the 767-300 Boeing Converted Freighter.
For large widebody freighters, including the 777F and the new 777-8F, Boeing expects the fleet to grow from 685 aircraft in 2025 to 1,280 by 2045.
The expansion is driven by a projected 3.7% annual growth in cargo traffic, fuelled by rising e-commerce demand and the need for reliable supply chains. To meet this demand, the industry will require nearly 3,000 new and repurposed aircraft to replace ageing models and expand capacity.
Manufacturing Challenges and Market Context
The air cargo sector continues to face delays to the Boeing 777-8F and Airbus A350F new-build programmes, while feedstock availability for widebody freighter conversions remains limited.
According to aviation advisory firm IBA, widebody freighter conversions exceeded narrowbody conversions for the first time since 2009 last year.
Despite current manufacturing delays and limited materials for conversions, the sector’s long-term trajectory remains robust. Boeing said international freighter capacity has increased by 5% year-to-date in 2026. By 2045, the company expects 55% of global air cargo to be carried by freighters.
Ultimately, these findings suggest that the transport of high-value and time-sensitive goods will continue to outpace general economic growth, with Boeing remaining prepared to support the industry’s expansion through continued investment in freighter programs and conversion solutions.
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