Mondelez lowers 2025 outlook as consumers cut back on chocolate, snack spending 

USA – Mondelez International has revised its full-year 2025 outlook downward as inflation-weary consumers in North America and Europe scale back on premium chocolates and snack purchases amid high cocoa prices.  

The maker of Oreo cookies and Cadbury chocolates said persistent cost pressures and declining consumer confidence have weighed on demand. 

The company now expects organic sales growth of 4% or more this year, down from its earlier projection of around 5%. It also anticipates earnings per share, excluding certain items, to fall by about 15%, compared with a previously forecast 10% decline. 

Chief Executive Officer Dirk Van de Put told analysts that consumers are “very concerned about the economy” and increasingly “frustrated with the pricing they’re seeing.”  

He noted that many shoppers are prioritizing essential goods over discretionary items such as cookies, chocolates, and snacks. Van de Put added that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown “will not help with the confidence of the consumer.” 

Over recent years, Mondelez has raised chocolate prices by as much as 30%, a move Van de Put admitted may have exceeded what many consumers could tolerate. Despite the company’s promotional efforts, he said the expected lift in sales volumes has not materialized.  

In response, Mondelez has introduced smaller package sizes to keep products below key price thresholds of US$3 and US$4, helping retain cost-sensitive customers. 

In its third-quarter report for 2025, Mondelez posted a 5.9% increase in net revenue, primarily driven by higher pricing.  

Regionally, Europe led performance with net revenues of US$3.6 billion, up 10.6%. The U.S. market followed with US$2.8 billion in net revenues, marking a slight 0.4% year-on-year decline. The Asia, Middle East, and Africa region rose 9% to US$2.01 billion, while Latin America recorded US$1.2 billion, up 2.8% from the previous year. 

Despite stronger top-line growth, gross profit declined by US$387 million, while operating income fell US$409 million, reflecting the strain from elevated input costs and weaker retail activity. 

Cocoa prices, which surged to record highs earlier this year, have been a major factor eroding margins.  

However, Mondelez expects some relief ahead as cocoa futures have dropped more than 50% from December’s peak amid improved weather conditions in West Africa and forecasts for a supply surplus. Global cocoa demand remains subdued and is likely to stay weak into next year, the company noted. 

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